GROWTH MARCH( F& F)

GROWTH MARCH(F&F)


“NE region is like California of 1848. Just as California’s economy boomed with the start of Gold rush in 1849, a similar economic boom is just going to happen in this region”. These are the words of Union Minister for DONeR, Shri Mani Shankar Aiyer. There are both Fillip and Flop (F&F) sides of this statement.

On the Fillip side we have certain factors. Power; there are plans to explore Hydro Electric Power (HeP) potential (50000MW) of this region and tranmit it to power deficient regions of the country through power grid lines. Out of the huge potential, only 7% has been exploited till date. Communications; surface, air and water communications are being improved. Major highways, NH 39 & NH 53 have been ordered to be four laned. Rail links are being improved- New Azra to Byrnihat (to connect Meghalaya to New Delhi), Dimapur to Kohima, Jiribam to Imphal, Kumarghat to Agartala, Trans Asian Railway to connect 28 nations to include China, Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Iran and Turkey is planned. This will enter India at Moreh in Manipur. Air connectivity is planned to be improved in terms of improving existing air fields, creating new air fields, increasing the number of flights and paving way for new airlines to enter the market.

Mizoram will become a trade hub when trade starts through Sittwe Port in Myanmar which is being linked through 160 km of Waterway (through Kaladan River) and 65 km of road link. Besides above there are other upbeat indicators. Four land custom Stations i.e. Moreh in Manipur, Dawki in Meghalaya, Sutrakandi in Assam and Agartala in Tripura are being planned. It is also being proposed to convert Nathula
into a Land Custom Station. China has already planned to connect Nathula with Lhasa through a rail link in next three years. This will help boost Sino Indian trade. This region of our country is floating on oil and other sources of energy like natural gas and coal that need to be explored. Meghalaya has huge deposits of Uranium to meet our nuclear energy needs.

China, Thailand and Burma are evincing interest in improving trade with India in this region. Bilateral meetings and mutual visits have already happened. India is seen as other wing of Jumbo economy of this region, the other being China. Chief Ministers are going out of their states to show case inherent business potential in respective states and woo investors both at national and international level e.g. Shri P.Gogoi, Chief Minister Assam did it in Bombay and UK recently.

The Flip side too can not be ignored. North East region is connected to the rest of nation by 20 km x 200 km thin Siliguri corridor (called Chicken Neck) which needs to be protected at all costs and all times against inimical elements. In case this corridor is cut off the only connectivity is by air which is difficult to sustain. Notwithstanding the planned projects to improve connectivity, will we see their fructification in desired time frame? Recently central forces have been ordered for providing security to construction of rail link in NC hills of South Assam that is already over delayed. China is constructing a dam, in its territory, on Tsangpo River that enters India as mighty Brahmaputra. This dam will affect HeP potential of this region by starving Brahmaputra river of few million cusecs of water diverted by China for her own purpose. India needs to be seen from the point of view of developed nations vis a vis China in this region and their strategic interests.

Last but not the least the violent related incidents. An investor needs two things; feeling of security and return for his investments. Security feeling is perceived by an outsider from electronic and print media news. As per statistics of Institute of Conflict Management the details of insurgency related fatalities w.e.f. 2001 to 2006 are given below:-
Civilians SFs Militants Total
Assam 1005 153 1080 2238
Manipur 383 215 776 1374
Nagaland 81 8 221 310
Tripura 168 259 637 1064

As per status paper of MHA for the period Jan 07 to 31 Mar 07. The insurgency related fatalities in Assam, Manipur and Nagaland are :-
Civilians SFs Militants Total
Assam 99 5 44 148
Manipur 28 23 124 165
Nagaland 13 - 61 74

Off late Assam had seen an upsurge in violence related incidents especially against the Non Assamese? This has resulted in issue of cautionary instructions, by foreign countries, to their citizens visiting this region as tourists. Assam is a gate way to North East India. When the gateway is not perceived to be peaceful, how would the investors come? In Manipur GoI has launched subsidy based credit linkage scheme for establishment of Agriclinics and Agribusiness centres based on project report by a qualified graduate. But no bank is ready to disburse loan despite having graduates trained by Institute of Cooperation Management Imphal. There is stiff resistance by locals against exploration of natural resources in their state e.g. oil exploration in Nagaland and Uranium mining in Meghalaya. These people have their own well founded reasons as they perceive that they will not get requisite benefits of exploration or it will affect the environment etc.

There is no doubt that this region is on the verge of the economic boom but what is lacking to catch up with the boom? It is often felt in unison that more funds need to be invested. Yes! It is an important input for any growth oriented society but there is a need to ensure end to end accountability in the chain of implementation. For optimal exploration and utilization of available natural resources there is urgent need to work out a mutually accepted transparent formula, which convinces the affected population that their interests will not be exploited but taken care of.

“Progress always involves Risk; you can not steal second base and keep your feet on first.” ‘Fredrick Wicox’


Geoffery
( reders can reach out to the author on email:
jaey_geoffery@yahoo.co.in